Ajay Shah
Working radical 2008-51
whitethorn 2008
NIPFP-DEA Research Program on Capital Flows and their Consequences
content Institute of Public Finance and Policy
brisk Delhi
http://www.nipfp.org.in/nipfp-dea-program/index.html
New issues in Indian macro policy
Ajay Shah?
NIPFP, New Delhi
http://www.mayin.org/ajayshah
May 6, 2008
Contents
1 The old world
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2 What has changed
2.1 Globalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.2 Government mesh of ?nance has partially eased
2.3 The business cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3.1 Monsoon shocks matter little . . . . . . . .
2.3.2 A more conventional business cycle . . . .
2.4 turn rate in?exibility . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5 The ?scal crisis has partially abated . . . . . . . .
3 Looking forward
3.1 pecuniary stability . . . . . .
3.2 Stabilisation . . . . . . .
3.2.1 Monetary policy .
3.2.2 Fiscal policy . . .
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4 Conclusion
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?
This is a preliminary version of the article New issues in Indian macro policy, which
appeared in Business specimen India, edited by T. N. Ninan, Business Standard Books,
2008. I am grateful to Vijay Kelkar, M. Govinda Rao, Amaresh Bagchi, Ila Patnaik,
Raghuram Rajan, Eswar Prasad, Percy Mistry, Ashok Desai and Joydeep Mukherji for
valuable discussions.
1
1
The old world
For many decades, macro-policy in India was conducted in an environment
with ?ve key elements:
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